The steel price of the hottest steel can be much f

2022-08-07
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How long can the steel price remain firm after the steel capacity reduction? With the arrival of winter and the increasingly serious haze in Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan and other places, the measures to limit the production of heating in the north have been implemented. At the same time, the steel capacity reduction is becoming more and more intense. Only steel prices remain strong

"the scheduled target task of steel capacity reduction has been completed, and the task of banning 'ground bar' according to law has been completed on schedule." Zhenglixin, director of the operation monitoring and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of industry and information technology, disclosed at the national information office meeting on October 28. So far, more than 100million tons of excess steel capacity and 400million tons of coal capacity have been withdrawn, and more than 1million workers have been relocated

on November 2, Xu Xiangchun analyzed in an interview with the China times, saying that from the perspective of effect, de capacity has greatly purified the market environment, significantly alleviated the pressure of overcapacity, steel prices have returned to a reasonable range, and the whole iron and steel industry has turned losses into profits

the city is full of "production restriction"

with the deep promotion of capacity reduction, the iron and steel business has indeed improved. According to the PMI index of the iron and steel industry released by the China Union of things steel logistics professional committee on October 31, it was 52.3% in October, which has been in the expansion range of more than 50% for six consecutive months, indicating that the high-profile situation of the iron and steel industry is still continuing

according to the investigation and verification, with the arrival of November, the steel industry is full of "limited production". As a matter of fact, the implementation effect of capacity removal in various regions is also good

on October 30, the Hebei provincial Party committee held an (expanded) meeting of the Standing Committee, which emphasized that we should further promote the supply side structural reform and intensify the de capacity work of steel, cement, coal and other industries. Earlier on October 27, the general office of Tangshan Municipal People's government issued the "peak shifting production plan for the iron and steel industry in Tangshan in the annual heating season". According to the above plan, the blast furnace production of iron and steel enterprises will be limited for 120 days from November 15 to March 15 next year. The total production limit ratio of the whole city is 50%. The total amount of blast furnace pig iron affected in four months is 18.21 million tons. "This is the third time that Tangshan has limited production in October." A staff member of the Tangshan development and Reform Commission, who asked not to be named, told the Huaxia times that "one factory and one policy were adopted for this production restriction, and all districts were required to report to the municipal government on November 3."

"the implementation plan for peak load shifting and production restriction of iron and steel enterprises released by Tangshan basically meets the market expectations, but it does not exceed the market expectations compared with the 50%-55% production restriction ratio in Wu'an area of Handan that has been implemented in the early stage." Xuxiangchun analyzed that the limited blast furnace pig iron production capacity calculated by Tangshan Municipal Government totaled 18.21 million tons, which was slightly different from the impact of more than 20million tons estimated by major institutions in the early stage. This is because there are obvious differences among iron and steel enterprises with different emission levels, environmental protection levels and equipment levels. Some high score enterprises are expected to limit production by only 20%-25%, while some low score enterprises will limit production by 75%

at the same time, Huaxia times learned from Tianjin that Tianjin has also issued a production restriction document. According to the document, Tianjin began to implement the peak shift production policy for iron and steel enterprises in the heating season from November 1 to ensure that the iron and steel production capacity is controlled within 20million tons by the end of the year. The proportion of limited production of major steel mills in Tianjin is between 40%-60%, and the total impact is about 50%

it can be said that this spring tide of local production restriction does not distinguish between North and south, nor between East and West. Sichuan, Jiangsu, Jilin, Henan and other provinces have joined the ranks of production restriction earlier. Among them, Sichuan proposed that during the period from October this year to March next year, on the one hand, the "blue sky defense war" should be resolutely fought due to incorrect installation; On October 25, Jiangsu Province started the cross check of air pollution control in autumn and winter, and the cross check lasted until March 31, 2018; Jilin has released the "action plan for air pollution control in autumn and winter" and so on

however, for the iron and steel industry, the supply of steel mills is reduced due to the production restriction in winter, which may affect the rise and fall of steel prices in winter

the steel price is still strong

although the city is full of limited production, the steel price seems to have stood on the wind. According to the order prices of major steel mills, most policies are to maintain a flat market, such as Baowu iron and steel and Angang

"with the implementation of environmental protection and production reduction measures in winter, the steel output will decline in the future, which will stimulate the steel price." Xuxiangchun said that in general, despite the impact of environmental protection and production reduction, the steel price does not have the conditions for a substantial increase in the later period. Xuxiangchun said that only the relationship between supply and demand determines the trend of steel prices

recently, Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, disclosed to the media that the iron and steel industry has experienced serious overcapacity for many years, resulting in vicious competition. When the price is the lowest, it drops to less than 2000 yuan/ton. "This year's goal is to reduce the iron and steel production capacity by 50million tons. By the end of August, the goal of the whole year has been fulfilled ahead of schedule." According to Miao Wei's prediction, the backward production capacity of iron and steel this year is expected to exceed 60million tons. It is worth noting that this does not include the capacity to remove the "ground bar". Miao Wei said that by the end of June this year, more than 600 enterprises had been removed, and more than 100 million tons of "ground bars" had been cleared

Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of statistics, said at the recent national information office meeting that the primary task of supply side reform in recent years is to reduce production capacity. As for the de capacity of steel, the state has set a goal - starting from 2016, the backward capacity of 100million-150million tons will be eliminated by 2020, while 65million tons have been completed in 2016. If 50million tons are completed in 2017, it will not be a problem to achieve the goal

"since last year, 215million tons of backward steel production capacity has been removed, which is still quite amazing." Many interviewees from the steel industry said that the elimination of backward production capacity is still an important work for steel enterprises in the next two to three years

although the iron and steel industry has made remarkable achievements in reducing production capacity, the output of crude steel has increased unabated. According to the prediction of Steel Valley, China's crude steel output will reach 837million tons in 2017, increasing unabated, compared with only 808million tons in 2016. In this regard, xuxiangchun believes that de capacity does not mean de production, nor will it hinder the release of high-quality capacity. For example, the blast furnace of Yuzhong iron and Steel Co., Ltd. of Gansu Jiuquan Iron and steel group was ignited on October 21, and the output is expected to reach 210000 tons in November

it is worth noting that while one door is closed, another window is opened. The General Administration of Customs hopes to continue and further develop the strategic partnership between the two countries. The newly released import and export data show that the structural performance of the 1 reverse zigzag experimental machine fully meets the requirements of the experimental specifications. In September, a total of 1.3868 million tons of scrap were exported, a huge increase over the same period last year

"this year, although steel mills still need to recycle scrap, the number has decreased sharply, but scrap has opened the door to the international market." A market manager engaged in scrap steel in Tangshan told the Huaxia times that in April this year, China's scrap steel export volume reached 15400 tons, a sharp increase of 2252.6% month on month. Basson, director general of the World Steel Association, said recently that the de capacity will benefit not only Chinese steel enterprises but also global steel enterprises

scrap steel is a promising green resource, that is, the length renewable resource of strain gauge base material. "This year, China's scrap export volume is so good. In addition to the impact of domestic policies, what is more important is the strong demand for scrap abroad." Xuxiangchun said that the sharp increase in scrap exports was also due to the price factor, and the price difference with some foreign markets was about 400 yuan

xuxiangchun also stressed that with the improvement of the prosperity of the iron and steel industry, the impulse to expand production capacity again appeared in various regions, and the overcapacity has not been fundamentally changed. "We should continue to promote the de capacity work, strictly control the new capacity, and prevent falling into the strange circle of overcapacity again. It is suggested that the construction of electric arc furnace capacity should be reasonably channeled, and the main way to solve it is to replace the capacity, which will not only help reduce the utilization of mineral resources, but also reduce pollution emissions." In addition, at the end of the interview, xuxiangchun added, "it is also necessary to prevent the resurgence of 'ground bars'."

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